Changing Demographics

After the last election, before the final exit polls came out of the western states, the Republican intelligentsia and punditry began a process of introspective and hand-wringing over a loss which ended being a blowout few on the right expected. (PPP, a Democratic polling group, came closest to predicting the election)

After the Republican “autopsy” came was released in March, the moderates in the party called for adopting comprehensive immigration reform, dropping anti-gay legislation and ending the defense of corporate welfare. (Edsall, NYT) A party which had largely dominated the last 3 decades of American politics was suddenly left trying to reconcile lost races with a divided base. As Karl Rove ran to the Fox Polling Room, there could only be one question in his mind… How did this happen?

The Diversifying Electorate—Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections), a report out of the US Census Bureau, shows how demographics voted in the last decade worth of elections- and the implications aren’t good for Republicans. Two million fewer white voters turned out for the 2012 election than in 2008. This may have been due to low enthusiasm, voter apathy, poor campaign outreach, etc. White males are a core demographic of the Republican voting bloc. For them not to turn up was damaging, but not fatal and can be fixed in upcoming elections. The real issue now for Republicans is that “2012 voting population expansion came primarily from minority voters”.

The Republican Party has long had an image problem when attracting minority voters. For some time, appealing to white, middle-class, evangelicals was enough to win nationwide races thanks to favorable national sentiment, electoral math, and favorable districting. As the nation begins to take a general left-wards tilt and electoral math makes it increasingly difficult to find the 270 votes with states such as Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina becoming increasingly difficult to win. If not for the gerrymandered House and Senate districts, it is plausible that Democrats would have regained control of the House in 2012.

Republicans cannot afford to remain in stasis.  As someone who values an opposing side in the debate and differing opinions, I’m not advocating that the Republican Party drop its principles and become the little Democratic Party. While I may not agree on many of their points, many people out there do. You’re not doing constituents any good by continuing down the path of ideological rigidity at the expense of the party and the moderates who really do desire legitimate representation on the ideas behind small government without the theocratic nature and, frankly, frightening anti-minority stances that have been adopted by the party in the past.

You don’t have to be for big government to win votes. You just have to be for common-sense. Running a platform as a theocratic, evangelical, small government for business but nobody else party has no viable place in the electoral system today, as both the Census report and recent defeats illustrate. As more and more of our underrepresented minority population begins to find its voice at the polls about issues within their communities, Republicans are going to have to make the tough choice.

Adapt and understand that not every person out there is going to share your views, especially among growing constituencies that haven’t been part of the Republican outreach efforts, or die a slow death as so many political parties have done before.

Reprinted from 5th District State Sen. Curt Thompson's (D-Tucker) blog. Thompson represents parts of unincorporated Duluth, Norcross, Tucker, and Lawrenceville. Also, check the senator out on Facebook and Twitter.